As the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) marks the first anniversary of the death of its founding leader, Raila Odinga, on Oct. 15, the commemoration has exposed a tangle of competing claims over his political legacy, pitting the party's current leadership against his own family and against rival opposition figures.

ODM has dedicated the entire month of October, which it calls "Mwezi wa Baba," to events honouring Odinga, beginning with a nationwide candle-lighting ceremony on Oct. 2 and running through a planned rally in Nairobi on Oct. 31. The party says the commemorations will also feed into efforts to have issues associated with Odinga's political legacy included in the 2027 manifesto under its pre-election coalition talks with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

A rift with the family

That ODM-led programme has drawn open pushback from parts of Odinga's own family. On Sept. 10, the Raila Odinga family announced it had formed its own committee, chaired by university don Prof. Adams Oloo, to coordinate anniversary activities beginning Oct. 15, stating explicitly that "this anniversary belongs neither to an individual nor to an institution" but to everyone Odinga's life touched. The family's statement said it understood many supporters had not had the chance to properly mourn him and wanted the commemorations to reflect that. The move appeared to be a direct response to ODM's own calendar, which had seemed to frame the anniversary primarily as a party affair. Odinga's sister, Kisumu County Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, went further in a Sept. 11 social media post, accusing unnamed party officials of exploiting the occasion: "We are heading for 15th October, and already vultures of ODM cups and tents are now planning to say Raila was an enigma. Stop the nonsense." Ruth Odinga and Winnie Odinga, another of Raila's children, have both remained publicly critical of how the party has been run since his death, accusing some senior officials of running it down.

A rift over who inherits his politics

Beyond the family dispute, Odinga's legacy has become a point of contention between ODM and rival opposition figures positioning themselves ahead of 2027. Funyula MP Wilberforce Oundo Mudenyo has argued that the "spirit" of Odinga's politics has left ODM's current establishment entirely, claiming it has instead found a home in Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi movement. He has accused senior ODM figures, including party leader Oburu Oginga, chairperson Gladys Wanga, National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and MP Peter Kaluma, of abandoning the values that defined Odinga's opposition politics. Some political analysts have argued that ODM's own internal tensions, including its increasingly close relationship with Ruto's government under their broad-based political arrangement, have inadvertently strengthened Sifuna's standing as the figure now most visibly associated with traditional opposition politics.

A party navigating its own succession

Oburu Oginga, Raila's elder brother, took over ODM's leadership amid competing views about the party's direction, and returns from a recent medical stay in the UK to find himself at the centre of both the anniversary season and the party's continuing internal strains. Beyond managing the commemorations, he faces the task of consolidating ODM's structures, managing its relationship with Ruto's government, and preparing the party for 2027, all while navigating the competing claims on Odinga's legacy from within his own family and from rival opposition figures. Analysts covering the party's trajectory have described the October commemorations as the first major test of how ODM, under Oburu's leadership, balances honouring Odinga's legacy with the party's current political reality.