An informal poll run on the X account of former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria showed Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna far ahead of President William Ruto and other potential 2027 contenders, drawing wide attention online even though the poll carries no scientific weight.

Kuria posted the poll on Friday, asking his followers to choose among four possible presidential contenders: Ruto, Sifuna, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. By the time voting closed, it had drawn more than 37,000 votes and over 687,000 views. Sifuna took 76.3 percent of the vote, followed by Ruto at 14.3 percent, Matiang'i at 4.8 percent and Kalonzo at 4.6 percent.

Kuria framed the poll around a broader argument that Kenya's opposition would fail to unite behind a single candidate in 2027, comparing the race to the fragmented 1997 election, when President Daniel arap Moi faced a divided field that included Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Michael Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu. "Take this to the bank. The 2027 Presidential race will be exactly like the 1997 election. There will be nothing like opposition unity," Kuria wrote on X on Saturday. "The following will all be on the ballot. With 318 days left, nothing will change. Hii imeenda."

The poll reflects only the views of Kuria's own X followers who chose to vote, not a representative sample of Kenyan voters, and multiple outlets covering it were careful to note this distinction. Sifuna has become increasingly vocal about his presidential ambitions in recent weeks, and leads the youth-driven Linda Mwananchi movement, whose supporters have organised online under the slogan "Sisi Ndio Sifuna" ("We are Sifuna"), which likely contributed to the lopsided result on a platform where his base is highly mobilised.

By contrast, the most recent scientific opinion poll on the race, conducted by the Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey team led by Tom Wolf and released in July, found a very different picture: Ruto led all contenders with 24 percent support between May and June, while Sifuna had overtaken Kalonzo as the most preferred opposition candidate, though at a far more modest level of support than the X poll suggested. That survey found Ruto short of the 50-percent-plus-one threshold needed to win outright in a first round.